I didn’t see the end of the game- stopped watching in the 3rd quarter. So I missed the fireworks in the 4th quarter. Thanks to the wonders of the internet I’ve been able to read up on the game and I’ve decided that Belichik made a defensible call. If Manning hangs 17 points on your defense in the 4th quarter, including a near 80-yard drive in 1:47, then I think as a coach you have to be thinking that whether Manning gets it at his 30 or your 30, he’s going to drive for a touchdown. Conversely, a 2-yard conversion for an offense that’s rolled up 450 yards looks like real makeable.
Not a conventional call, but a defensible one.
UPDATE: Having read more opinions, plus listening to a nearly apoplectic Ted Johnson on the radio, I’ve come to the conclusion that this was right call. Understand, I’m not a Belichik apparatchik nor am I a Pats fan of any note.
Listening to all the callers and opinions, it seems to be nearly unanimous that had the Pats punted the outcome would be a done deal. Apparently Pats’ fans had forgotten the AFC championship game from a few years back, or other games where Manning had victimized them in quick strike fashion (I can think of another game where the Colts marched down and it took a goal line stand for the Pats to preserve the win.) Let alone the two previous 4th quarter touchdown drives from the game. Giving Manning the ball with almost 2 minutes to go, probably on his 30 with a timeout in hand are not odds you want to bet against. Much as he is reviled, Manning knows how to work in that situation and he has long since cast off his Pat’s hex.
I think Belichik made the call because it was his best chance to win. They had racked up over 450 yards of offense to that point. They’ve made 4th down conversions all year long. Indeed, they have one of the best offenses in the league. They had scored 34 points. Moving the ball was not an issue. Pressure was not an issue. The calculus was simple- he was confident they could get two yards, when they needed it, against anyone. Why give the ball back to Manning when they don’t have to? If (when in Belichik’s mind) they make, the game is over.
This move was the ultimate “aggressive” play calling move. Really, in that situation putting his defense back on the field is playing “not-to-lose” instead of for the win. He bucked conventional wisdom here, but his doing so doesn’t show lack of confidence in his defense or arrogance regarding his own play calling ablilities. It was a decision to give his team the best chance to win a game. That’s what good coaches do.