Saw this yesterday and meant to comment on it, but didn’t get the chance. Now I see ESPN has also picked it up, so I’ll take the time to offer some comments.
From what I know about fusion surgeries, they are a stop-gap procedure that is used when all else has failed. The other problem with fusing vertebra is that it doesn’t stop with just 1 surgery, my understanding is it takes 3 or 4 surgeries before things stabilize. Attendant with that is the loss of range of motion and also the loss of strength around that area.
I seriously doubt he’d be able to play at the level everyone is accustomed to. For one, it’s already documented that he’s lost a tremendous amount of throwing strength (He hasn’t been able to throw more than 20 or 30 yards according to one of the above links.) For two, a limited range of motion in his neck means he’d have trouble seeing the field- not necessarily down the field, but certainly in the pocket. For three, he’s no spring-chicken anymore- he’s on the wrong side of 35 now.
Not to mention, if he does play, he’ll likely not get the benefit of the doubt from defenses anymore. He’ll see much more aggressive play from them, especially with blitzing. Sure, he may recognize the blitz is coming, but it’s another thing to make a defense pay for it. Right now, it’s not at all clear he’ll be capable of it. If he proves incapable of handling it because of arm strength or reaction time, or just plain old rustiness from missing a year, then he’ll only get more of the treatment from defenses.
Manning has nothing left to prove where football is concerned. He’s a lock for a first ballot HOF’er, he’s been MVP of the league multiple times and he’s been to 2 Super Bowls, winning one of them. He’s set numerous passing records and set the standard for quarterback play in the league for many years now. And contra a lot of other opinions, I actually think this past season speaks volumes about Manning’s importance to the Colts. With Manning as QB, defenses couldn’t be aggressive and teams had to game plan how to out score the Colts. Further, the Colt’s defense was built to play with a lead. Take away the points and the leads, and you get what we had last season for the Colts. Defenses could blitz the Colt’s offense and generally be aggressive for the first time in a decade because the threat of Manning burning to the defense was non-existent. The Colts may not have won the Super Bowl last year with Manning, but they likely are a contender and they are certainly better than a 2 win team.
So given his accomplishments and the questionable health status that see-saws between not-so-good and bad, I think Manning should retire. He’s not going to be a Brett Favre- his neck won’t let him. If he does play, I think there’s a serious possibility that he gets hurt and is forced into retirement as a result. The other possible scenario is that he proves to be ineffective due to the physical limitations his neck problems create for him. There may be teams out there willing to pay him to play for them, but they won’t have his best interests at heart. Finally, at 35+, Manning is nearing the end anyway. Without the injury, sure he probably could have played until he hit 40. But I think the neck injury changes the calculation. His time is up, it’s as simple as that.
UPDATE:
I think Colts owner Jim Irsay is thinking this way too (from the ESPN article):
It’s a two-pronged thing. The first is if and when the nerve regenerates and whether it allows him to play at a high level. But I always want Peyton to understand the risk-rewards about playing. We want to make sure he understands the long-term aspects of his health in trying to play.”
Sounds like someone who’s trying to plant a seed in a player’s head. He could be acting out of self-interest- not wanting to worry about playing against Manning. But I think that’s unlikely. Irsay knows what Manning has done for his team, I think he’s being sincere here.