Apparently, there is finally a formal proposal to expand the NFL season to 18 games. Here are some of my thoughts on what it will mean(try to read past the first couple, which I admit fall into the “Duh” category):
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Assuming a strike doesn’t happen, it will mean more money for the owners. Of course, even with the strike it will eventually mean more money for the owners, it’ll just take longer to get there.
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It will also mean more money per season for the players. Expect a lot of contract renegotiations when the transition occurs.
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I’d expect more late season injuries- especially to older players where bodies basically breakdown. Along the same lines, I’d expect more injuries during the playoffs.
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Careers will get shorter. I don’t think the average person understands the physical toll taken on an NFL player. I think the affect of 2 more games of wear on a player is greater than just 2 games. Players are already beatup mentally and physically at the end of the current season. Many will be downright primed for breakdowns with 2 more games.
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Expect team turnover to increase. A successful team has about 6-8 years as a unit, depending on talent, because of the extra playoff games. Happened to the Cowboys in the 90’s, it happened to the Patriots in the 00’s. So a good team with Super Bowl aspirations will have fewer years in which to win one, and fewer years that they remain competitive before their talent pool is used up. Probably more in line with 5-6 years. No more “Team of the Decade” titles. It’ll probably shift to “the best team of the past 5 years.” The 4 Super Bowl mark of greatness for a team goes away.
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The possibility of an undefeated season disappears I think. I know the undefeated record is something like 23 games, but that’s spans from the middle of one season to the middle of the next and includes playoff wins. Two extra games makes the odds of running the table (what, 21 games from the season opener to the Super Bowl) astronomical to the point of impossible.
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I expect the first 4 weeks of the season to be much more chaotic. Timing and game conditioning won’t be the same. I know part of the current justification rests on shortening the preseason. But those games are used to gradually ramp players up to speed. Look at Favre this year, or Darrelle Revis who both missed training camp and both were not ready for their respective openers. Now imagine that on a league wide basis.
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I think all season records should be reset to 0. The new benchmark for season rushing yards becomes 1500, with a great season becoming 2000 yards. The record will be 2500 or so. I think 6000 yards passing is now doable, with 4500 yards becoming the new benchmark.
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Expect more late season playoff runs. The extra games will likely throw-off precision teams, such as the Colts, early. But once they hit their stride, they’ve got a couple extra games to make up for a slow start. The effect won’t be huge, but it will be there.
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The transition for rookies will be brutal. They will have two fewer weeks to learn offensive and defensive systems. They’re body and minds will have the shock of switching from a season that starts in late August and ends in November to a season that starts in mid-August and ends at the end of December. I’d say rookies will be used more sparingly early in the year in the hopes of having them capable of meaningfully contribute at the end of the year.
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Youth becomes king. Veteran teams will not be able to keep pace with younger teams because they just won’t have the energy at the end of the year to make their experience matter.
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Good defenses become downright stifling by the end of the year. Defensive coordinators will have 2 more games to figure out what makes offenses tick. They’ll put it too good use.
On a pure speculation note, I think the raison-d’etre for this move is television. Specifically, no one watches the pre-season and the networks are none to pleased with that state of affairs. I’m a Cowboys fan and I can’t tell you anything about how they looked in the pre-season. I know I’m not the only one. Only the fantasy guys and diehards who think they can coach care about the pre-season- and even there it’s only because they haven’t figured out that the pre-season is a predictor of absolutely squat. So the owners figure that making the games “count” will increase the viewing season. They’re probably right.
Looking at the above, I’m struck by how easy it is to come up with net-negatives for the longer season. I suppose the main plus for fans is the longer viewing season and probably all the season record setting. Largely, the move seems to be a net negative for players. Sure they’ll have higher paying seasons; but there’s a good chance it’s offset by shorter careers.
I’ll be curious to see justifications beyond “more games that count.” I’m sure they exist; but I can’t think of them, which makes me dubious of their convincing power.