Category: Football

BAH!

This was my nightmare scenario, arguably my 2 least favorite teams in the playoffs, making it to the Super Bowl. Naturally, it comes to fruition. Crap.

My instant reaction is we’ll be looking at the Giants as Super Bowl champs in a couple weeks. They’re the kind of team that gives the Patriots fits: elite QB with just enough of a run game and a defense that can get pressure from its front 4. Plus, the Giants are hot and feeling it at this point: in consecutive weeks they beat the best offense (Packers) and the best defense (49ers) in the league.

I can’t think about it anymore. Even if the Pats win, there’s not much in it for me. More later.

Maybe.

Well, with the Giants dispatching the Packers earlier this evening, there are officially no teams left I have any enthusiasm for; let alone interest in seeing win a Super Bowl. The closest of those left would be the Patriots, but I have no special love for them. In fact, I have a sinking feeling that a Pats-Giants rematch is in our future. Minus any undefeated glory.

One observation- for all the talk of the great offense during the regular season, the teams with the best defense are the ones remaining. Yes, even the Patriots, whose D stepped up to throttle the Bronco’s O. Defense still wins championships.

For criminy’s sake Fox, I want to see the game- not your talking head idiots.

UPDATE:
Well, that couldn’t have gone much better for the Niners. Actually, this game is a textbook example of the ol’ saw “That’s why they play the game.” The Saints are clearly the better team, but no one gets away with that many turnovers in a playoff game. So far, the Niners O can’t do much. The Saints’, on the other hand, have stopped themselves. If they stop doing that, I expect them to pull it out.

Also, is there a QB in the league more accurate than Brees? The second touchdown pass and the deep out he threw for a first down earlier in the drive were absolutely perfect throws. Reminds me of Dan Marino, whom I thought had the most accurate arm I’d ever see. Brees is just as good I’d say. Just awesome.

UPDATE2:
WOW!

I stand corrected. The Niners were the better team. No team deserves to win after giving up a lead twice in the last 3 minutes.

That is why we watch these games. Even the Wife was yelling at the TV during that one.

First up, the Niners and Saints. I’m giving the Saints the nod in this one. I think they’re offense is too potent for the Niners’ D, while their offense is not potent enough to keep the Saints O off the field. Brees will get too many chances and, while they likely won’t score 40 plus, they’ll score enough to make the difference.

The more interesting game is clearly the Broncos and Patriots. Most everyone just remembers the final score of the regular season match-up. What I’ve only seen talked about a couple of times, is the fact that the Broncos gave that game away with 3 2nd quarter turnovers, all of which were freakish. More importantly, the Pats’ D couldn’t stop the Denver running game. If the Denver O asserts itself like they did in the first game and eliminates the turnovers, then I think Denver wins the game. So I see 2 possibilities: a general replay of the 1st game where the Pats get a lead early and limit Denver’s options offensively as a result; or a closer game that favors Denver because their offense keeps the Pats’ O off the field, while scoring points of their own.

The ratings for the BCS (aka- Boring Championship Snoozer) were the worst ever the BCS.

As much as I enjoy college football, I had no enthusiasm for this rematch. In general, rematches in the college game stink. Actually, football rematches in general stink. I watched the game because that’s what was on at the racquetball club. We sat around and made fun of the announcers and the overall lameness of the game in general.

For my money, I never liked the idea of this rematch. Alabama had their shot at LSU the first time around and didn’t get it done. Now ‘Bama gets and undisputed championship because they beat a team on the 2nd go around? Am I the only one bothered by these circumstances? They should share the Championship so all of us can grumble about how inferior the college system is at determining an overall champion. But then Oklahoma St could make an argument since all 3 of them are 1 loss teams now.

Then someone could propose a college playoff as “The One True Answer.” I’ll call them an idiot and round and round we’ll go.

Oh, shoot.

The Cowboys-Giants game was indeed a good one. Too bad it broke the wrong way. When it was over, I was pissed I’d stayed up to watch it. In some ways, it’s kind of nice to know a football game can still get me fired up like that. I was even talking to the TV.

A bunch of observations:

• If the Cowboys don’t have a 14 point lead with 2 minutes to go, they will lose. How can there be talk about Rex Ryan becoming a head coach when he can’t get his defense to perform in the clutch?

• This year is shaping up to be Tony Romo’s steadiest, most consistent year. Even when he makes mistakes, he’s doesn’t totally crater (excepting the Lions game). Still, he’s not in the Brady/Brees/Rodgers class.

• Is it just me, or do the Packers remind anyone else of the Patriot team that went undefeated? Great offense, so-so-good-enough-to-get-by defense, other-worldly quarterback play. I find it interesting that I haven’t found anyone else making the comparison. We also know how that one ended…

• I called the Dream Team when it was first dubbed so. I’m still chuckling.

• I’m still not buying Tim Tebow as a starting NFL QB. But he’s passed my expectations by such a wide margin now that it’s hard for me not to reconsider it. A little anyway.

• Having reconsidered, I still say ‘No’, Tim Tebow will not be the Bronco’s next great QB. Other defenses will figure him out, the Bronco’s defense won’t always be this good, and he still can’t throw the ball well enough.

• Archie Manning needs to STFU. Really. He’s used up all his good will credits. Go back and be retired Archie.

• Patriot fans mock Peyton Manning when he yelled at his receivers. Tom Brady yells at his receivers and no one says boo. Go figure.

• The Ravens will win the Super Bowl. Just because I wanted to say something silly.

From a PFT article about Rex Ryan’s attempts to motivate his QB:.

And perhaps that would be the next step in Rex’s second annual effort to get Sanchez’s attention.

I find this remarkable because Mark Sanchez is a pro quarterback on a highly visible team with a highly visible coach. For the past 3 years including this one, the Jets have been expecting to make the playoffs. In each of those 3 years, Sanchez has been the mitigating factor. Or, more precisely, his play has been the mitigating factor.

Sanchez consistently says he knows what’s expected of him and that he has to perform better. Yet, here we are with his coach having to play mind games in an attempt to motivate him.

Given all the above factors, how can Sanchez need to be motivated? If he’s capable of playing at a higher level, then he should be doing everything in his power to get there. More films, more practice, whatever it takes. He shouldn’t need someone driving him. If he does, then I’d say the Jets need to start looking for a better quarterback.

The way I see it, there are 2 possibilities here: that Sanchez isn’t the quarterback the Jets thought he was, or the offensive staff isn’t as effective at teaching the quarterback position and offense in general. Personally, I’m of an opinion that’s a version of former: he’s just a middling quarterback with the maddening knack for performing above average under pressure.

Here, by Joe Posnanski. Probably as good a take as you can find. Mr. Posnanski is writing a biography on Paterno. It should be a fascinating read.

My final word on Paterno is, well, more about the coverage actually. While I agree he erred badly, I cannot agree at all with growing number of commenters whom consider him an accomplice. The facts do not support that assertion in the slightest.

Actually, I lied. My final word is, I hope the worst of this story is over.

No need for a link as it’s all over the sports news currently, as any football fan would expect. While there’s still a part of me that’s lingers in the disappointed region of emotion, it’s dwarfed by a combination of logic and anger.

Let there be know doubt, this is what had to happen. Paterno’s failure was too great at a time when a 10-year old boy needed someone, anyone, to do the right thing. Paterno could have been running the most crooked, 3-ring circus in history, but if he does the right thing on that night, those transgressions would have paled in comparison to this 1 right that he did. Life constantly throws tests at us and not all of them are as important as others. This test was one Paterno, and McQueary, couldn’t afford to fail. But they failed spectacularly, as well as who ever the administrators were who knew and also did nothing.

Everything that’s happening now to them they earned. Everything Sandusky did after that day they are culpable for- may it haunt them until the end of their days. Even as recently as yesterday, I was hesitant to think this; but the conclusion is inescapable that 46 years of good service Paterno and McQueary squandered in one night with one stupid, selfish, unforgivable decision. I would have preferred hearing about an academic scandal to this travesty.

And to be clear, McQueary needs to be gone as well, as well as anyone else involved who knew. Even then, the cost to them is not really enough. Not when measured against the price those boys paid.

I say all this as a former, rock solid fan of Paterno and his football program. No more.

No link- as I saw it over at ESPN’s site, but I don’t care to link it because of the various opinions being thrown around about Paterno. I don’t have all my thoughts together about it, personally, because the reports are all white-hot emotion and short on fact. The main one Paterno is getting beaten over the head with is that the abuse was brought to his attention and he did what he was supposed to, but no more. I’m still not sure what the “more” was supposed to be at this point. That’s not to say he couldn’t have done more- I’m waiting for more info at this point before I pass judgment.

That said, based on the reports, Sandusky has much to answer for and, assuming he is guilty, I like to think there’s a special place in hell waiting for him.

One other thing- not that I’ve seen anything like this yet, but anyone upset with the 8 victims for tarnishing Penn State really need to check their priorities. At this point, whatever wounds Penn State suffers are entirely self-inflicted.

UPDATE:

Ann Althouse has been following the case and appears to have read the Grand Jury report. She says:

In case you’ve forgotten, the story Paterno heard – according to the grand jury report – was that McQueary, a graduate assistant coach, saw “a naked boy about 10 years old ‘with his hands up against the wall, being subjected to anal intercourse by a naked Sandusky.'”

At which point, Paterno reported things up the power structure at Penn State, but did not go to the police. The only justification I can think for why they wouldn’t have gone to the police is, they were shocked into complacency. But at some point, you recover from it and the right thing to do is act. Beyond the barest minimum, McQueary and Paterno did not act. It’s hard to find any defense for Paterno or McQueary.

I’ve always been a fan of Paterno and probably will continue to be, but it will always be with an asterisk now. He really did fail me here. Of all the coaches out there that I’d expect to do the right thing, it would be him. He did not- and it’s very disappointing to admit that.

Tim Tebow had no problem with Detroit Lions linebacker Stephen Tulloch striking the prayerful pose known as “Tebowing” after sacking him last week.

Tebow said he figures Tulloch was just having fun, not mocking him or his Christian faith by participating in the phenomenon that’s become an Internet sensation.

The article then quickly dives into the 2nd year QB’s embattled last couple of games. I don’t think he has a future as a pro quarterback. In fact, I never thought he had a future as a pro QB. I think his current tenure is so the Bronco’s can say to their fanbase “Look you all saw it, we gave him plenty of time and he can’t do it.” Basically, it’s damage control.

Still, in this particular case, it’s refreshing to see a guy take the simple attitude of “Hey man, it’s a game. Stuff happens, no big deal.” There are too many self-proclaimed victims, particularly in sports (Lebron James, Terrell Owens) in general and Tebow could’ve very easily taken that path. He didn’t and “Good for him” I says. Hell, society in general could stand to use that attitude more.

Unfortunately for him, it takes more than good attitude to make an NFL QB.

Watching the Arizona-UCLA football game and both teams just had a mini-brawl. Arizona’s bench actually cleared and stormed the field. Fortunately, the refs and coaches got the situation under control quickly and it fizzled as quickly as it started.

But one of Arizona’s best players was ejected as a result and they were showing footage of him laughing it off on the sideline. My guess it he won’t be laughing once the coaches are done with him.

There’s been a bit of a mini brou-ha-ha since the Cowboys-Redskins game last week over mimicked snapped counts. I didn’t see the game, but the Cowboy’s center had a bunch of errant snaps and stated after the game that some of the Redskins’ linemen were mimicking Romo’s snap cadence, thus causing him to errantly snap the ball and causing various problems at inopportune times in the game.

In the hyper competitive world of professional football, anything goes even if it’s against the rules. It’s a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty if an official catches the defense calling a cadence to screw up the offense. The Redskins, of course, deny any such nefarious rule breaking occurred.

For my part, I have no doubt the Redskins were actually doing it. The fact is it’s one of those penalties that a defense is more likely than not to get away with. The officials are paying attention to lots of things and with all the distractions, a well-timed “HUT” from a defensive lineman near the center (or a blitzing middle linebacker) is just not going to get caught.

With all that, I like the attitude the Cowboys are taking in dealing with the problem:

“There’s been noise on the line of scrimmage in the NFL since Pudge Heffelfinger was around,” Garrett said Thursday, referring to the first man to sign a pro football contract. “So, that’s how it works. We just have to understand what the issues are there and we have to focus on whose voices we’re listening to and just get locked in and snap the ball the way it needs to be snapped.”

The quote is from this article, in which its pretty clear that the NFL is aware of the problem in general, but has little effective means of dealing with it. Even owner Jerry Jones is sounding a similar tune.

For my part, Garrett is absolutely correct. It’s a problem for which the burden is on the Cowboys to find some kind of solution. The best way is to make the act so unlikely to work that it isn’t worth the attempt. Rather than just relying on some authority to conjure up another rule that will likely be broken in the pursuit of winning. Or worse, conjure up some other modification that will have other repercussions. I hadn’t known about the miked up centers and it seems pretty clear that capturing the audio from them is a good way to steal cadences, audible calls and the like.

Anyway, as far as the Cowboys are concerned, the resolution espoused by Coach Garrett and owner Jones speaks well to having the right attitude towards their play and conduct generally. Take responsibility for everything about the game. Don’t complain about problems, instead adapt and overcome. That’s the attitude of a winner.

So Romo plays with a fractured rib; Dez Bryant plays banged up, as does Felix Jones and the Cowboys get a tough win where, it sounds like, a lot of things went wrong for them. In fact, that’s 2 weeks in a row where they’ve basically had bad games but still managed to get things right in the end and pull out a win.

It’s tempting to say the team has turned a corner, especially after last year. But I’m not convinced that the ‘Niners or ‘Skins are actually formidable opponents. Which means the Cowboys may be just good enough to lose big games against quality opponents. Kind of like what happened in Week 1 against the Jets, in fact.

History has shown repeatedly that top-notch teams beat the teams they should, and beat them handily. They also beat other good teams. Losses are rarely, if ever, to bad teams and when they are, it’s typically a division rival. It’s a mark of a consistent, high-level quality of play that a good team must have to make it to the playoffs and win a Super Bowl.

It’s still early days for this season. Early successes like the Cowboys have had these past 2 weeks can certainly help the psyche. Especially for the Cowboys, who lost so loudly and so often last year. In particular, it’s good to see that Romo has been able to get things done late in games to get wins at long last.

In fact, that’s probably the best that can be said about this year’s Cowboys team. Last year, they would have found ways to lose those games. But that’s still not the greatest of compliments. We’ll see where they are at in another couple of weeks.

It is my contention that football is an interesting enough game without silly, made-up drama. The games are highly entertaining, the sub plots for the playoff spots are a drama unto themselves, and the personalities of players are on display like never before. Plot lines don’t have to be made up, they are there for the offering.

But here we are, 2 games in to a 16 game football season, and the storyline du jour is that there are a bunch of QB’s who are “on pace” to break a season long record.

Really? I mean, really? Did I mention that the “on pace” part consists of 2 whole games? Were these guys extrapolating out the 400+ yard passing performances in week 1 and predicting someone would surpass the 6500 yard mark for season passing? Didn’t Brady pass for over 500 yards in week 1? I mean, why not predict the “much-ballyhooed” 8000 yard mark will be eclipsed?

Here’s the best quote from the linked article:

The NFL has morphed into a passing league in recent years, …

I mean, good grief. “In recent years”!?!?! How long has this person been watching football? And what were they watching that ever gave the impression the league was run dominated? I know Barry Switzer coached for a bit, but I’m pretty sure he left the wishbone back at Oklahoma. Hell, Oklahoma doesn’t even play a wishbone offense anymore.

The mind boggles at silliness like this.

I wanted to stream the game for a bit tonight on my laptop. Turns out that I can’t do that because NBC uses “Silverlight” technology from M$. Grrr. Never thought I’d be wishing for Adobe Flash, but there it is.

So the uselessness of NBC streaming decision aside, how ’bout Tony Romo? I wonder if that’s the sort of game that get’s things turned around for him, or if the injury keeps him out too long for it to matter. He always said he was a fan of Brett Favre, wonder what he would have done? Actually, no. I don’t. I wonder if Romo will do the same thing though. Guess we’ll find out next week.

The Patriots looked real good today. Although I wonder what Pat fans think of all of Brady’s gesticulating and yelling at receivers when he throws and incompletion. At one point, I could have sworn he had a “Manning-face.” My guess is Pat’s fans are just fine with it. He’s not Manning after all.

The Lions are looking interesting, as are the Bills. Both because of young QB’s who are looking pretty good right now. The trick will be seeing how much their schedules matter to their success.

I’d heard about this analysis, but hadn’t taken the time to go through it. But after reading this article at Wired, I’ve downloaded it and decided to go through it and see if I can make heads or tails of it.

From the article, there are a couple of key graphs:

So let’s say you are NFL coach, and you have a fourth and three on your opponent’s 30 yard line. Romer could tell you that 1) you have a 60 percent chance of getting a first down, and that teams with 1st downs inside the thirty yard line score a touchdown 40 percent of the time, for an expected point value of 1.7 and 2) that field goal attempts from the 32 yard line failed almost 65 percent of the time, which meant that going for a field goal only had an expected point value of 1.05. In other words, it’s almost twice as effective to go for it than to attempt a field goal.

That’s the gist of how the study on 4th downs was done. Now, for the payoff:

So what do most coaches do? They consistently make the wrong decision. According to Romer’s analysis, teams would have been better off going for it on fourth down during the 1st quarter on 1100 different drives. Instead, coaches decided to kick the ball 992 times. This meant that NFL coaches made the wrong decision over 90 percent of the time. Romer summarized his counterintuitive results: “This analysis implies that teams should be quite aggressive. A team facing fourth and goal is better off on average trying for a touchdown as long as it is within 5 yards of the endzone. At midfield, being within 5 yards of a first down makes going for it on average desirable. Even on its own 10 yard line – 90 yards from a score – a team within three yards of a first down is better off on average going for it.” Romer conservatively estimates that a more aggressive approach on fourth downs would make a team 5 percent more likely to win the game.

So, NFL coaches have been making bad 4th down decisions for all of time. The article goes on to lament that, since the paper had been published, 4th down decision making has not changed one bit in the NFL. Thus, proving that humans are incapable of taking useful information and applying it.

I’m all for counter-intuitive results, but I’ve got a few questions. For instance, how does Romer account for the fact that, if a coach goes for it on 4th-and-3 from their own 10 and doesn’t make it, the opponent has a virtual certainty of scoring a touchdown? Also, should we really expect such a huge change in decision making for a measly 5% improved chance to win a game? Does he assume that each team has a 50-50 shot at winning the game? If so, that’s a big problem. While I believe in the old “On any given Sudnay” maxim in football, I also believe that good teams are good for a reason and they’re chances of winning are substantially higher than 50-50 week in and week out.

Also, I wonder if he attempts to account for momentum? Not converting on 4th down is a mental hit in football. Does something like that show up in the math?

Football has been played long enough that I tend to think that 4th down decision making has evolved the way it has for a reason. I’m willing to listen to the possibility that it’s wrong. That’s why I’ll read through the paper to try and make sense of it. But I’ll state straight out that I’m skeptical. Math is one thing. The real world is something else.

I didn’t blog this last night because by the time the game ended, it was real late and the last thing I wanted to do was blog. Now that I’m refreshed from a night’s sleep, allow me to just say “HOLY S**T! WHAT AN INCREDIBLE GAME!” Oh, that would be the Notre Dame-Michigan game last night.

Unlike Brent Musberger, I don’t think that Denard Robinson is the “most exciting player in college football”; but, he certainly made things exciting last night. Besides, we all know good ol’ Brent will become star struck by a new piece of football candy during next week’s game. That’s just how he rolls.

Still, I’d say Michigan is in for a fair amount of disappoint this year. For one thing, they don’t seem capable of doing anything without a big play offensively. Every score benefited from a long pass, or a long run. Hell, their first touchdown benefited from their own fumble! But less weirdly, their final touchdown drive was a perfect example: 80 yards to go and 30 seconds to do it for a score, Notre Dame inexplicably botches their deep coverage and Robinson throws a deep ball to a wide open receiver, who then runs 50 yards across the field to get them inside the 20. That’s big play number 1 of the drive. On the next play, rather than spike it or move the ball to the center of the field, Robinson tosses a bad fade route pass that his receiver adjusts to for a winning touchdown. Big play number 2. All the other drives were similar- deep pass to setup score of for the score.

Another observation: Herbstreit kept giving Robinson credit for throwing those deep-ball completions short so his receivers could come back to the ball. I’m not buying it. Yes, that’s how those passes were completed, but from what I saw I don’t think Robinson’s arm is accurate enough to throw a 40-yard pass in the air long versus short to a moving receiver. In fact, based on some other comments Herbstreit made, I wonder if he has the arm strength to make deep ball completions to a receiver in stride. Don’t be surprised if future defenses start covering Michigan receivers underneath, rather than over-the-top like Notre Dame did last night. There were a lot more interceptions to be had there, and any one of them changes the game result.

Defensively, Michigan was OK. I was buying into the bend-but-don’t-break description right up until Notre Dame managed 2 fourth quarter touchdowns. The second came with 30 seconds remaining giving them the lead, however temporarily. You can’t break when the game is on the line.

So in all, Michigan got a fun win last night. But I doubt they’ll be competing for top honors this year.

In other news, Penn St.: not so good; Auburn is using up their magic finishes real quick; Ohio St. is not looking quite so competitive; LSU is good, as will be most of the good teams from the SEC and Oregon rebounded a little.

Still plenty of football to be played.

… is Pat Forde on Les Miles after LSU’s huge, colossal, landscape changing victory over Oregon. Let’s go to the tape:

Tumult and trouble don’t touch The Hat. They bounce off him, like he has some sort of invisible force field protecting him.

You can take away LSU coach Les Miles’ starting quarterback after a bar brawl. You can take away one of his most dangerous play makers after an NCAA violation. You can take away his offensive coordinator after being stricken by Parkinson’s. You can take away three defensive players chosen in the first 87 picks of the 2011 NFL draft.

It won’t matter. The madcap Miles will make sense of the chaos.

You can take away Forde’s pen. You can take away his metaphors. You can take away the most skilled research staff in the history of sports writing. But it won’t matter. Forde will still find a way to breathless deify the object of his ardour.

Forde doesn’t stop there either. After all but proclaiming Miles the Jesus of college football coaching, he lays it on even thicker:

When the sun shines too long — that’s the time to worry about Les. When storm clouds are gathering — Jordan Jefferson arrested on a felony battery charge, receiver Russell Shepard suspended by the NCAA, assistant Steve Kragthorpe relinquishing play-calling duties, Oregon’s up-tempo offense looming — that’s when he’s at his best.

Awesome. Relatedly, I’m pretty sure Miles didn’t bother returning to Baton Rouge on the team plane. Rather, he tamed the whole space-time continuum thing and teleported himself back along. Word has it, he arrived before the game film that he emailed to himself.

A question: where was Miles during Hurricane Irene? An observation: Forde better hope Miles doesn’t turn around too suddenly; he’ll break Forde’s neck.

What’s particularly great about this is it’s game 1 of the season. We don’t know if Oregon just hasn’t gotten their stuff together; if their not top 25 material; if LSU is really the best team in the country; if LSU will end up 1-10; if it’s just a matchup issue for Oregon; anything. No matter for Forde though, who’s clearly mastered the art of elevating his article’s object to the point of deity.

This sort of writing has become all to common, to be honest. Think of any star and it’s a guarantee that in addition to all the vanquished foes in their wake will be a trail of sports articles like this telling us how gravity-defyingly great they are.

Best of all, it’s week 1. We’ve got games into December including league championships, bowl games and BCS championship games. There will be a lot more gods defined before it’s over.

LSU’s 1st string QB and a linebacker are suspended indefinitely from the team. They’ve also “turned themselves in” to police according to the article. It sounds like there may be more guys dealt with before its all over.

Good on LSU for acting like that even with an important season opener coming up. Frankly, I wasn’t expecting much. Still, it’s too bad that something like this happened at all. I’m sure LSU is thinking that as well.