Pats-Falcons Super Bowl Prediction

UPDATE:
Couldn’t have been more wrong if I intended it. Maybe then I’d have been right! Well, as they say “Go Big, or Go Home.” I chose Big. Wait ’til I make my Super Bowl pick…

I used to be more interested in the football prognostication game. But nowadays, my football consumption has dropped rather precipitously and with it has gone my interest in predicting games. I actually attribute this to the amount of football I consumed from my early teens into my mid-20’s or so. There just came a point where there was always something else to do come game day and a subconscious realization that, with the exception of the standout play or two, I’d seen about ever scenario that could play out on the football field. So anymore, when presented with a matchup, I can instantly imagine scenarios in which either team can win. It makes predicting seem more than a bit pointless.

So, all throat clearing completed now, I’m predicting that the Patriots and Falcons will advance to the Super Bowl this year.

I don’t think I need to justify much with the Patriots game- that’s a straight up pick-em as far as I’m concerned. Suffice it to say, Joe Flacco is not an elite quarterback. He’s more than a Trent Dilfer style manage-the-game dude, but he isn’t Tom Brady, Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger. Heck, he isn’t even a Peyton Manning. So Brady, along with a Pat’s D that reminds me of their earlier Super Bowl teams that on the strength of their defense, give the Patriots all the advantage they need.

As for the Falcons pick, I’m really basing it on one thing- Kaepernick having a bad game. Actually, I think it will be more like the Falcons D manages to force him into a bad game.

You see, I had an epiphany related to the QB position this year. To start, look at Cam Newton, who tore up the league last year. This year, not so much. Why? Defensive coordinators figured out his tendencies, figured out his comfort zone, and forced him to play outside of it. This is what defensive coordinators do. This year, we had a bunch of QB’s, mainly rookies, that the league had never seen before. Obviously, they’re a talented bunch and defensive coordinators simply hadn’t figured out how to game plan for them sufficiently.

I think the reason pocket passers thrive in the NFL is because they are the hardest to plan against because they are most effective at taking advantage of what a defense gives them. With QB’s that run, not so much. They need the ability to run to put a defense on it’s heels. But time has shown that a running QB can be neutralized and the coverage breakdowns that result from his running don’t materialize.

So, to summarize, I think the key to all the success of these young QB’s this year has been their shared newness to the league and for defensive scheming in general.

Last week, the Falcons came pretty close to figuring out Wilson. This week, I think they’ll get the job done on Kaepernick, who has benefited largely from being an unknown commodity. Thus, the Falcons move on and the 49ers come up bridesmaids once again.